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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.