🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still